SPG

30Y Treasury yields at near-20-year highs, WTI oil at $101, and Iran war fears are recreating a stagflation regime. Energy producers benefit from rising commodity prices with fixed costs; the real trade is long large-cap US energy producers as the stagflation premium re-rates them higher while duration-sensitive assets crater.

US CPI hits 3.8% — highest since May 2023 — driven by Iran war energy costs. Fed rate cut expectations must be repriced sharply. REITs, which rallied on cut expectations and now trade at stretched multiples with 10Y yields at 4.45% and rising, face a double compression: higher discount rates and energy-inflated operating costs. Short rate-sensitive equity REITs.

Union labor costs push Apple out of premium mall locations, eroding anchor-tenant economics for mall REITs like SPG and AXP.