KEY

The gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields jumped 21 basis points in 5 days, to 101. That 2.3 standard deviation move signals a break from the flat curve that hurt bank lending margins for 18 months. Regional banks' outlook has improved, but their shares still reflect the old curve.

A consensus jobs print — solid growth, steady unemployment — would validate soft-landing and pull forward Fed cut expectations. Regional banks and mid-cap lenders are the overlooked beneficiary: rate-cut repricing relieves NIM pressure and credit cost fears simultaneously. Long rate-sensitive US mid-cap financials into the print.