CDNS

An ASML supplier confirms China is 15 years behind in advanced chipmaking tools, structurally cementing Western equipment monopoly. The non-obvious trade: US-listed metrology and process control tool makers (KLA, Onto Innovation) whose inspection and EDA software are equally irreplaceable and face zero Chinese competition. Long US large-cap and mid-cap semiconductor equipment and EDA names.

Samsung projects chip shortages through 2028 and is signing long-term supply deals. The obvious trade — long Samsung or TSMC — is already crowded. The real play is long fabless IP royalty and EDA software companies: they collect higher royalties as chip ASPs rise, require zero new capex, and their revenue gets locked in by the same multi-year contracts. Long US-listed large-cap semiconductor IP licensors and EDA software vendors.

Nomura flags overlooked semiconductor bottlenecks that hyperscaler forced spending will expose. Market is long the obvious names; the real trade is in under-owned enabling layers — advanced packaging, interconnect, and specialty semiconductor equipment — where capacity can't scale fast enough to meet locked-in demand.