AVAV

Iran launched ballistic missiles at US troops; Trump vowed heavy retaliation. Oil spiked to $88 (market snapshot shows WTI at $84.55, so the headline implies an intraday move). Consensus rushes to long crude and large-cap defense primes. The overlooked trade: mid-cap US defense MRO and precision munitions component suppliers who benefit from rapid inventory replenishment cycles, a spend that lags the headline by weeks.

US strikes Iranian military sites twice in 3 days, including interception of Iranian one-way attack drones. Oil is already falling, so energy is a red herring. The real signal is a structural uplift in drone defense, precision strike, and electronic warfare budgets. Long US large-cap defense primes and mid-cap drone/counter-drone specialists.