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Theses

Theses are the bigger stories behind our signals. When news, earnings or macro signals keep pointing the same way, we group them into one thesis with the stocks most likely to move. A thesis ranks higher the more signals back it, especially fresh ones from different sources.

Active · 18Inactive · 11Technology · 4Energy · 4Industrials · 4Consumer Discretionary · 3Financials · 3
Lead thesis· #8 of 18

Rising mortgage rates cut home sales and refinances, shrinking the transaction volume that title insurers earn fees on

FinancialsFNFFAFLENDHI

Home sales keep hitting multi-year lows, but mortgage rates have eased four weeks and First American and Fidelity National shares climbed as the market fell.

6.1Building
28 sources·last evidence yesterday+6
Full thesis →

How it connects

  1. 1
    What happened

    Mortgage rates rise to 7.49%, which lowers what buyers can afford and pushes homebuilders to spend more on rate buydowns or sell fewer homes.

  2. 2
    What it forces

    Fewer home purchases and fewer refinancings reduce the number of property deals that close.

  3. 3
    Who feels it

    Title insurers like First American Financial and Fidelity National Financial write fewer policies, because each premium is tied to a closed deal.

#13

A large theft from a major crypto exchange drives traders to smaller competitors, cutting trading fees at those platforms

FinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesCOIN

Billions keep leaving Binance after its record hack and Coinbase shares have fallen more than the market, though near-full repayment softens the fee damage.

4.9Building
last evidence yesterday+2
#16

Europe's debt and banking strains make trading with European banks riskier, costing big US banks money even without a default

FinancialsBanks - DiversifiedCGSMS

French debt stress hit euro crisis levels before easing slightly, and shares of Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have fallen more than the market.

4.5Building
last evidence 13 days ago