The Treasury's waiver runs to April 7, 2027, and Trump has defended it, yet the first Russian tanker, carrying about 40,000 metric tons of diesel, has dropped New York as its destination. Union Pacific's shares have still risen while the S&P 500 slipped. Against that, US diesel sits at $6.30 a gallon, and lawmakers of both parties are warning banks and ports not to handle Russian fuel.
Updated Oct 29
Railroads
The reasoning of the connection that opened this thesis. It is not updated.
In March 2026 the US temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil already loaded on tankers to calm markets during the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz supply shock. The relief proved limited. Brent crude was still about $125 a barrel in early October.
The deal may barely change diesel prices. Russian seaborne diesel exports fell to about 144,000 barrels a day in September 2026, the lowest in more than a decade of Vortexa data, after about 150,000 barrels a day in August, 81% below the five-year seasonal average. Analysts doubt Russia can deliver the promised amounts. Even if prices fall, Union Pacific's fuel surcharges offset part, but not all, of its fuel costs, so lower diesel also trims that surcharge revenue and the net gain could be small.
20 for · 12 against
The Treasury waiver lets Russian diesel be sold worldwide through April 7, 2027. That could narrow the diesel margins that lifted US refiners such as Valero and Marathon Petroleum.
If more diesel reaches the market, prices could fall from the near-record $6.20 a gallon of early October.
Union Pacific would pay less for locomotive fuel, partly offset by lower fuel surcharge revenue.
Average move since Tenji added each name: +8.0% · S&P 500 since the thesis opened Oct 10: -2.9% · 1 of 1 names moving with the thesis
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