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Tenji reads thousands of headlines, prediction markets, and macro signals, then writes up the trades hiding two or three steps downstream.
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Latest idea
Hike odds collapse 9pp in 7 days — rate-sensitive homebuilders still priced for tightening
Polymarket hike odds dropped 76% → 66% in 7 days with no single public catalyst. Homebuilders price in a tightening regime that the crowd is increasingly abandoning. DHI trades at ~8x forward earnings — a tightening-cycle multiple — while the rate outlook softens. Long DHI as the hike-probability collapse diffuses into mortgage-rate expectations and builder multiples re-rate.
1st orderPolymarket crowd is pricing a 66% probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026, down from 76% one week ago — a 9pp collapse with no single identifiable public catalyst, suggesting informed flow is fading the hike scenario.
2nd orderIf hike probability continues falling, the right tail of the 2026 rate distribution compresses, the implied ceiling on 30-year mortgage rates drops, and homebuilder demand models improve. DHI's forward earnings estimates — built on ~7% mortgage rate assumptions — become too conservative.
3rd orderDHI trades at ~8x forward earnings, a tightening-cycle multiple. If the crowd's 66% hike probability is correct and the rate ceiling falls, DHI should re-rate toward 10-11x — consistent with a plateau/easing cycle — implying 20-30% upside. The equity market has not moved; the prediction market has.
How it works
Headlines get priced in fast. The second- and third-order trades are still on the table. That's what Tenji hunts.
News wires, curated feeds, macro data, and Polymarket odds, pulled four times a day, around the clock.
AI traces each catalyst down its causal chain, checks market history, and forces a contrarian counter-argument. Weak ideas die at the quality gates.
A curated feed of ideas: tickers, direction, time horizon, and the why in plain English.
Key features
Every idea ships with the reasoning and thesis, not just a ticker.
First-, second-, and third-order consequences, mapped.
Every idea ships with the strongest case against it. See the bear case before entering.
Analogous events from past markets, with what happened next.
When Polymarket odds drift with no public catalyst, Tenji maps the move to equities that haven't re-rated yet.
When credit spreads or the yield curve break two sigma from normal, Tenji flags the baskets mispriced for the new regime.
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FAQ · For active traders
Aggregators give you more headlines. Tenji gives you fewer, better conclusions. It filters hundreds of articles down to the market-relevant ones, then does the analyst work: what it means, who it affects two steps downstream, and the strongest argument against the trade.
Swing trading, mostly. Every idea is tagged with a time horizon: days, weeks, or months. Actionable ideas have a clear catalyst and a short fuse, usually a few days to a couple of weeks. Deep Thesis ideas are structural, multi-month plays. Nothing here is a 9:45 AM scalp alert. If you day trade, you can still use Tenji to know which names have a real catalyst behind them, as these names could have multiple days of follow through.
7 days free, no card required. $9.90/month after. Cancel anytime.
No. Tenji is a research tool. It does not provide financial advice. It surfaces ideas, reasoning, and context so you can do your own due diligence. Every trade decision (entry, exit, and position size) is yours. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.
Prediction markets like Polymarket sometimes move before the news does. When a contract drifts significantly over days without a matching public catalyst, that drift can reflect people positioning ahead of an undisclosed event. Tenji detects it and maps it to related equities.
Whatever entry style you already trade. Tenji hands you the thesis: the ticker, the direction (long or short), the time horizon, and the reason the market is mispricing it. It does not hand you an entry, stop, or target, on purpose. Some traders buy the breakout, some wait for the pullback, some express it with options. The idea tells you what and why. Your system tells you when and how much.
No, and that's deliberate. Tenji is a thesis machine, not a signal service. It records the price at publish time so every idea can be scored later, but position sizing and risk management are yours. If you don't have a risk framework yet, build that first. No idea feed fixes bad risk management.
A handful, not a firehose. The pipeline runs four times a day (roughly pre-market, midday, after the close, and evening ET) and reads thousands of headlines, prediction markets, and macro signals. Almost everything gets rejected by the quality gates. What survives is the small set actually worth your attention, with informed-flow ideas capped at three per day.
No penny stock lottery tickets. Ideas only publish if they resolve to names in nine major indexes: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow 30, FTSE 100, TSX Composite, Nikkei 225, DAX 40, Hang Seng, and NIFTY 50. Large, liquid names you can actually get in and out of.
Both. Every ticker in an idea is tagged long, short, or watch, and the idea itself is marked bullish, bearish, or mixed. If the thesis says a name is on the wrong side of a chain reaction, Tenji will say short it.
Three ways. First, the tier: Actionable means high conviction with a live catalyst, Speculative means higher risk and higher reward, Deep Thesis means slow-burn structural. Second, every idea carries confidence and importance scores. Third, every idea includes the strongest case against the trade and a specific "what would make this wrong" falsifier. If the bear case reads more convincing than the thesis in your opinion, skip it. That's the point.
Nothing scary. The trial needs no card, so it can't auto-charge you. When it ends, your account moves to the free plan (one full idea per day) until you decide to subscribe at $9.90/month.
From Settings, in two clicks, any time. You keep full access through the end of the billing period you already paid for, then move to the free plan.
Scanners tell you what's moving right now. News tells you what already happened. Tenji works two or three steps downstream: it maps the second and third-order effects of a headline and flags the names the market hasn't repriced yet. It's the difference between reacting with the crowd and positioning before the crowd connects the dots.
No. Ideas arrive four times a day on the web app and in an email digest, each with an executive summary you can read in a minute. It's built for people with a job, a life, or a day trading session they'd rather not interrupt.
The latest idea from the live feed, condensed. Full reasoning inside.