Hormuz normalization at 62% on Polymarket but oil tanker names still pricing disruption — long MPC

This is Angle C — a 34.5pp, 7-day drift with no publicly-reported news catalyst explaining the move. WTI dropped 11% this week, but that move is ambiguous: it could reflect demand fears or supply normalization. The Polymarket signal is specific — it is pricing a concrete operational threshold (IMF Portwatch transit calls ≥ 60 on a 7-day MA), not a vague geopolitical sentiment shift. When a market this specific moves 34.5pp in 7 days, the most parsimonious explanation is that traders with access to diplomatic back-channels, shipping intelligence, or government sources are front-running an announcement. The equity market has not processed this cleanly: XLE is down 3.2% on the week, dragged by crude's 11% drop, and refiners like Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are caught in the sector selloff despite the fact that cheaper crude is their core input cost advantage. The causal transmission is direct and survives skepticism: Hormuz normalization → higher tanker throughput → lower crude supply disruption premium → WTI settles $3-5 lower from risk-premium compression → refiner crack spreads widen as feedstock costs fall while refined product prices lag → MPC earnings power increases. MPC is the most direct beneficiary because it is a pure-play US refiner with no upstream exposure — it does not lose revenue when crude falls, it gains margin. The stock is currently trading at roughly 7x forward earnings, near the low end of its 5-year range, implying the market is treating the crude weakness as a demand signal (bad for refiners) rather than a supply normalization signal (good for refiners). That is the mispricing. When the Hormuz normalization news actually breaks publicly — whether via a diplomatic announcement, an IMF Portwatch data print crossing the threshold, or a US-Iran back-channel report — MPC should re-rate 4-7% as the market distinguishes between crude-weakness-from-demand (bearish for refiners) and crude-weakness-from-supply-normalization (bullish for refiners). The trade is long MPC now, before the equity market makes that distinction.