Good for ↑
China proposed curbs on exporting 40 technologies. Most are AI, but 12 are solar technologies, including polysilicon production. Making it harder for Chinese firms to share solar know-how abroad could slow rival factories built on Chinese technology. That would help First Solar, a non-Chinese panel maker.
Source: Bloomberg ↗
When a country stops sharing how it makes something, its rivals abroad cannot copy it as fast, and the companies that already make it their own way face less new competition.
Most of China's new export list is about AI, but 12 items are solar technologies. Some of the largest polysilicon processes would be banned from export outright, and others would need government approval. The list also covers wafer-making, mainstream cell processes such as TOPCon and heterojunction, perovskite and tandem cells, and the know-how to build the equipment. First Solar makes thin-film panels that do not use polysilicon, so the curb does not touch its own process. It would only affect its silicon-panel rivals.
Factories outside China that want to copy Chinese methods could find it slower and harder to get them. It is like a famous chef being told not to teach his recipes overseas. Restaurants abroad that hoped to copy him have to wait, so fewer new copycats open. It is not just about new factories: a registration requirement in force since Oct 16 covers deals still under way, and the draft reaches equipment, licensing and on-site technical support, so plants abroad that still rely on Chinese help to ramp up or upgrade could also be slowed.
First Solar makes panels outside the Chinese supply chain, so slower rollouts and upgrades at Chinese-backed factories abroad mean fewer new competitors for its customers. First Solar is already fighting silicon-panel rivals over technology: on Oct. 1 it sued JA Solar and American Panel Solutions in the US over TOPCon cell patents, one of the cell processes China now proposes to restrict. Any boost is likely small, because tariffs and tax-credit rules shape First Solar's US orders far more. How big the effect is remains unknown, because the rule is still a draft.
On October 16, China said it plans to restrict or ban exports of 40 technologies. Twenty-three are AI technologies, such as models with 2 trillion or more parameters, model weights and source code. Chip designs and computing clusters are also covered. That deepens the US-China tech split. The same list includes 12 solar technologies, among them polysilicon production. Some of these items would be banned from export and others would need a license. Chinese firms must already register such transfers while the draft, published jointly by the commerce and science ministries, is open for comment until Nov. 15. That could slow new panel factories outside China that rely on Chinese technology, so non-Chinese makers such as First Solar (FSLR) face fewer new rivals. How large the gain could be is not yet known.
The proposal is a draft, and its thresholds and licensing rules are not yet set. The link breaks if China's final list drops or narrows the solar items. It also breaks if licenses turn out to be routinely granted. Public comment closes Nov. 15, but no date is set for the final list. Watch whether the final catalogue keeps the solar items and their thresholds, and whether firms with factories abroad report delays under the registration rule already in force.
The curbs limit the export of know-how, not of panels, so cheap Chinese panels could keep competing with First Solar as before. First Solar's net sales fell 4% to $1.06 billion in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, mainly because of customer contract terminations, which shows it faces pressures this rule does not touch. Its shares fell 3.5% on Oct. 16, the day of the announcement, in a market where the Nasdaq fell 2.1%, so investors did not treat the news as a boost. The draft could also be softened as US-China talks on AI safety make progress.
In early 2023, China's commerce and science ministries proposed adding solar wafer, black-silicon and ingot-casting technologies to the same export-restriction catalogue.
No comments yet.
Sign in to comment