Ceasefire odds jump 5pp in 7 days with no catalyst — short European defense, long European reconstruction plays

This is Angle C — the 7-day drift from 7.5% to 12.5% has no matching public news catalyst. There were no credible ceasefire negotiations reported, no Trump-Zelensky-Putin summits announced, no leaked framework agreements. A 5pp absolute move on a geopolitical binary with $200k+ in 24h volume and $234k in liquidity is not retail noise — it is consistent with informed positioning ahead of an undisclosed diplomatic development, the same pattern seen before the Iran strike markets in 2024. The equity market has not priced any of this: BA.L is up 40%+ over the past 12 months on the European rearmament thesis, trading at 22x forward earnings — a multiple that only makes sense if elevated defense budgets persist for 5+ years. A ceasefire announcement would not eliminate NATO spending commitments, but it would immediately reduce the urgency premium baked into defense multiples, likely compressing BA.L by 12-18% in the first week. On the other side, Japanese construction equipment exporters — Komatsu (6301.T) and Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305.T) — are the most direct equity transmission for a Ukraine reconstruction cycle. Ukraine's reconstruction cost is estimated at $500B-$700B by the World Bank, requiring massive imports of excavators, bulldozers, and cranes. Both names trade at 10-12x forward earnings, near 5-year lows on the thesis that the war suppresses near-term demand. The crowd's implied probability of 12.5% is still a tail event, but the 67% relative move in 7 days without a public catalyst means the probability of an undisclosed diplomatic event is meaningfully higher than the market is pricing. The equity transmission is asymmetric: BA.L has far more downside on a ceasefire than it has upside if the war continues (already priced in), while 6301.T has substantial upside on a ceasefire with limited additional downside if the war grinds on.