Blockade collapse odds plunged 60%→40% in 7 days; energy exporters haven't rallied on geopolitical relief

This is ANGLE C: the 7-day probability move is a leading indicator of equity repricing. The crowd shifted sharply from 60% confidence in blockade lifting to only 40% in just one week—a 21-point absolute move. This signals growing conviction that the blockade will persist through April 2026, implying sustained Strait-of-Hormuz shipping disruption, higher insurance and financing costs for tanker operators, and structural support for crude prices above $85/bbl. Yet WTI has fallen 2.9% over the same 7 days, and energy sector (XLE) has underperformed the broad market. The crowd's probability collapse is NOT yet reflected in oil or energy equity valuations. If the 40% blockade-lift probability holds or drifts lower, crude should retest $90–95 on geopolitical premium, and tanker operators and upstream exporters should rally 3–5% as shipping scarcity value reprices in. The disconnect is stark: the prediction market is pricing structural supply-chain friction, but equity energy has treated the blockade as transient noise rather than a multi-month structural headwind.

The strongest case against this trade: (1) Oil markets may be correctly discounting a blockade as temporary posturing by Trump, with backroom negotiations expected to resolve by Q3 2026, making the equity repricing premature. (2) The prediction market's 21-point collapse could reflect new intelligence on imminent U.S.-Iran deal talks, not conviction in blockade persistence—if a deal surfaces in the next 2–4 weeks, the crowd will flip back to 55%+ lift probability and energy equities will fall 2–3%. (3) The most vulnerable assumption is that tanker operators can sustain margin expansion; if shipping insurance pools fragment or rerouting becomes normalized, utilization premiums fade faster than equity markets can reprice. A single statement from Trump or a U.S. official signaling 'negotiations ongoing' would reverse this thesis overnight.